Goals of the task
Task 4.4 investigates the economic aspects of the case cities and respective countries as part of a comprehensive analysis of material and energy flows in the case cities in WP4. The “Analyses of Economic Aspects” include a macroeconomic analysis of the local conditions (D-4.12) but also the investigation of sector-related costs for generation, supply and disposal (D-4.13) as well as scenarios on predicted price developments in respective areas (D-4.14). This task provides economic basic data for the whole project and especially for the scenario and the entry project development.
Work done to achieve the goals
Analysis of economic conditions
To give an overview of the local economic conditions and prosperity, macroeconomic aspects of the case cities were gathered and analysed on national, city and city district level. Macroeconomic indicators include GDP, interest rates, price indices, employment indicators, balance of payments, etc. Further, the financial sector, price developments as well as income, consumption behaviour and poverty were analysed in detail to give a comprehensive picture of the local economic conditions.
The report to D-4.12 mainly contains a compilation of statistical data of respective statistical offices, research organisations and development banks. Most data could be collected via desktop research. The database could be complemented by information of the local partners and other local stakeholders within the case cities, especially during a research visit in Da Nang. The selection of 2-3 relevant districts for the district analysis was done in close cooperation with local partners in Da Nang and Frankfurt. Criteria for the selection were areas with special relevance for RP (e.g. entry project location) or districts with special/ different local conditions.
For Assiut, the report could only be prepared with data on national level while specific data for the city of Assiut and respective districts are not available from desktop research. Therefore, a questionnaire was developed and sent to the RP focal point for collecting the missing data.
A database on sector-related costs of generation, supply and disposal for each case city was drafted in form of MS Excel tables with sector-related unit cost information. The tables base on the Sankey input sheets for each sector developed by ifeu to ensure compatibility and transferability of results.
Data collection on sector-related costs for D-4.13 is ongoing and started with expert meetings in Kigali in June 2016. Data collection has been supported by the research results of IZES master students that have been analysing the RP sectors energy, water and wastewater as well as waste in Kigali and Da Nang. During their three-month research stays in the case cities, they were able to gain important data on the material flow and also the financial flows within the investigated sectors. Data from the master theses is being analysed, reviewed and verified before data is brought together in the database on sector-related costs.
Scenarios on predicted price developments
The scenarios on price developments will be developed as soon as the database on sector-related costs is drafted. They will make predictions on the development of sector costs considering anticipated future developments.
Results so far
The report on the economic conditions in the case cities (D-4-12) was finalised in December 2016 for Da Nang, Kigali and Frankfurt and is still a draft version as long as data from Assiut on city/ city district level are missing. It gives an extensive overview of the economic situation in the RP countries and the case cities themselves. Frankfurt, as expected, is the wealthiest city, while Kigali has the lowest income and GDP parameters. Rwanda and Egypt have relatively high interest rates hindering local investments. More details are provided in the draft report.
The databases on sector-related costs (D-4.13) are filling up with content but are not complete yet as some data could not be verified until now and some data has not yet been accessible (especially in Vietnam). Draft tables of this deliverable showing the cost structures of the sectors waste, water and wastewater as well as energy in Kigali and Da Nang are available.
Detailed results are found in the deliverable draft reports Analysis of economic conditions and prosperity on national, city and city district level for each case city (reviewed by the case cities) (D-4.12), Data base on sector related costs for generation, supply and disposal for each case city (D-4.13) and Scenarios on predicted price developments of the sector related topics (D-4.14).